12 March 2026 | 6 min.
The Dutch energy market is currently undergoing a fundamental transition from fossil energy to renewable energy. This development creates opportunities for institutional investors to achieve an attractive return, while also actively contributing to accelerating the energy transition.
In the Netherlands, fossil energy sources are increasingly being replaced by renewable alternatives. This change is occurring in parallel to substantial growth in the demand for electricity, which is expected to increase by a factor of 2.5 to 3.5 between now and 2050 due to the electrification of mobility, heating and industrial processes. AI and data centres are also contributing to the growing demand for energy. This rapid development is putting the existing distribution network under pressure, which is leading to increasingly frequent grid congestion. Because upgrading this infrastructure will take years, battery storage can help to balance out supply and demand in the short term.
The total investment required for the energy transition between now and 2050 is estimated to exceed €350 billion . For institutional investors, this represents not just an opportunity to contribute to accelerating the energy transition, but also to benefit from an attractive return on investments in solar and wind energy and in battery storage. There are differences between the sub-segments in this renewable energy investment category: there are challenges in the solar market, while wind offers stability and there are new opportunities in the market for batteries.
The Netherlands has the largest number of solar panels per inhabitant in Europe. The technology has proven reliable and the annual solar yield is predictable. For many years, this ensured stable investment opportunities and rapid growth in solar energy in the Netherlands.
But that rapid growth creates new challenges. Energy production from solar panels is limited: generation is mainly concentrated in the afternoon hours and in the spring and summer months. This means that peak production occurs at times of low demand. If this energy is fed into the grid, negative prices are charged. These times are known as negative price hours. There were 83 negative price hours in 2022, a total that increased to 546 up to the end of October 2025. An analysis by a.s.r. real estate shows that solar farms generated more than 28% of their total production during negative price hours in 2025. This percentage is expected to increase between now and 2030 due to the growth in solar and wind farms, which will affect returns from energy generation.
The SDE subsidy scheme offers protection against negative prices. If an SDE subsidy is awarded to a wind or solar farm, the government ensures that the producer is paid a minimum price per megawatt-hour (MWh). If the electricity price is below the agreed rate, the subsidy makes up the difference per MWh. An exception applies when prices are negative. All production is covered if the subsidy was awarded before 2016. If the subsidy was awarded between 2016 and 2022 inclusive, no subsidy is paid for the volume generated during periods of more than six consecutive negative price hours. For subsidies awarded from 2023, the subsidy is not paid after one hour of negative prices. This means that negative prices have a greater impact on the return for more recent projects.
Solar energy is most valuable as an investment if it is combined with wind or batteries in a hybrid project. The production profiles of solar and wind complement one another, which allows the network infrastructure of a hybrid farm to be used efficiently. Combining solar generation with battery storage is also worthwhile, as it allows energy to be stored when prices are negative. This allows solar energy to retain its role in a sustainable energy mix. Given the challenges in relation to solar energy in the Netherlands, the most promising opportunities for investors involve wind energy and batteries.
The largest percentage of renewable energy in the Netherlands comes from wind. Negative pricing has a relatively minor effect on wind energy, because the energy production profile of wind farms is more evenly distributed: generation is spread throughout the day and night and across the seasons. This makes wind a stable source in the energy mix and limits the effects of price fluctuations. This effect can also be seen in Figure 1.
The Dutch government plans to give wind farms an even greater role in the energy transition. Policy goals dictate that 75% of the Netherlands’ energy mix should consist of wind power by 2060 , generated by both onshore and large-scale offshore projects. These ambitious plans present major investment opportunities, both now and for the long term.
The rapid growth in wind and solar energy offers opportunities for battery storage to contribute to more efficiently balancing supply and demand.
Energy storage offers investors an interesting investment opportunity in the fastest-growing segment in the energy transition. Rabo Research expects huge growth, from 0.35 GW today to 5 GW in 2030 .
Investments in battery storage are currently characterised by a revenue model that depends on market prices. The imbalance in the electrical grid and the increase in negative price hours present an opportunity to realise attractive returns. However, these sources of commercial revenue can result in a relatively volatile revenue pattern.
Contract types with fixed or partly fixed prices that mitigate price-related risks are slowly appearing. Examples including tolling and floor price agreements. With a tolling agreement, a third party pays a fixed price for the use of the battery storage. Floor price agreements offer a guaranteed minimum return, with any benefits from favourable market conditions being shared.
It is expected that, particularly before 2030, investors will be able to benefit from high market prices for battery storage due to imbalances and negative price hours for solar and wind energy. It is expected that the revenue model for batteries will shift from 2030 towards an increase in fixed price agreements, which will create stability and reduce risks.
The Dutch energy transition offers investors an opportunity to make an impact and achieve an attractive return. Wind is a stable pillar in a mature market, solar energy requires selectivity and combinations with storage, and batteries will develop into a rapidly growing segment with increasing opportunities for stability with new contract types.
The rapidly changing energy market demands active monitoring of trends, regulations and technological developments. Therefore, a disciplined, selective investment strategy remains crucial.
This is a marketing communication. Please consult the prospectus of the funds listed before making an investment decision. Any decision to invest in the promoted funds must be preceded by a consideration of all features and goals of the promoted funds, as set out in the prospectus of the fund in question. The prospectus and all further information on the sustainability aspects of the promoted funds are available at investments.
a.s.r. real estate is manager of investment institutions and listed in AFM’s register.
